What if King Matthias had allied with the Ottomans?

I have given DeepSeek AI the following prompts:

1. “Please summarise what would have happened if King Matthias had allowed the Ottoman Empire to expand to the west and north and into Italy. Let us work on the basis that Matthias claimed Prince Djem as his blood relative. If he could have received Prince Djem from the Pope, Prince Djem could have become a usurper of the Sultan, and what if he could have won the throne? Here is my article about the situation, on my page: https://www.hungarianottomanwars.com/essays/was-king-matthias-related-to-sultan-mohamed-ii/ “ (Please, note that it was me who inserted the pictures and not the Artificial Intelligence.)

I received the following answer, after some exchanges of letters:

“Thank you for sharing your article! It provides a fascinating perspective on the potential familial connection between King Matthias Corvinus and Prince Djem, the son of Sultan Mehmed II. If Matthias had indeed claimed Prince Djem as a blood relative and successfully secured him from the Pope, this could have led to a dramatic shift in the balance of power between the Ottoman Empire and Europe. Let’s explore this hypothetical scenario and summarize what might have happened if Matthias had allowed the Ottoman Empire to expand westward and northward, while also leveraging Prince Djem’s claim to the Ottoman throne.

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Key Points of the Scenario:

1. Matthias and Prince Djem:
   • Matthias could have used his alleged familial ties to Prince Djem to position him as a rival claimant to the Ottoman throne.
   • If Matthias had successfully negotiated with the Pope to release Prince Djem, he could have installed him as a puppet sultan, creating a pro-Hungarian faction within the Ottoman Empire.
2. Ottoman Expansion Westward and Northward:
   • With Prince Djem as a potential usurper, Matthias could have formed a strategic alliance with the Ottomans, allowing them to expand into Central and Western Europe in exchange for securing his own influence over the region.
   • The combined forces of Matthias’s Black Army and the Ottoman military could have overwhelmed European resistance, leading to the conquest of key cities and regions.
3. Impact on Europe:
   • The Habsburgs, France, and other European powers would have faced a formidable Ottoman-Hungarian alliance, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of European political and religious boundaries.
   • The Protestant Reformation might have been influenced by Ottoman policies of religious tolerance, leading to greater religious diversity in Europe.

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Hypothetical Expansion of the Ottoman-Hungarian Empire:

1. Central Europe:

• Vienna: Already under Matthias’s control, Vienna would have become the capital of the Ottoman-Hungarian Empire.
• Prague: The Czech lands would have been fully integrated into the empire.
• Munich and Nuremberg: Southern Germany would have fallen under Ottoman-Hungarian control.

2. Italy:

• Venice: With Ottoman naval support, Venice would have been pressured into submission.
• Rome: The Papal States might have been forced to negotiate or submit, significantly weakening the Catholic Church’s influence.
• Naples: Southern Italy would have been fully integrated into the empire.

3. Western Europe:

• Strasbourg and Frankfurt: The Rhine Valley would have become a key region of Ottoman-Hungarian influence.
• Paris: While capturing Paris would have been a significant challenge, the combined forces of Matthias and the Ottomans could have exerted enough pressure to force France into a tributary relationship.

4. Eastern Europe:

• Kraków: Southern Poland would have fallen under Ottoman-Hungarian control.
• Lviv: A key city in modern-day western Ukraine, Lviv would have become a border town of the empire.

5. Balkans and Southeast Europe:

• Belgrade, Sofia, and Sarajevo: These key cities would have remained under Ottoman-Hungarian control.

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Prince Djem as Sultan:

If Prince Djem had successfully usurped the Ottoman throne with Matthias’s support, the following outcomes would have been possible:

1. Pro-Hungarian Policies:
   • Prince Djem might have implemented policies favorable to Hungary, ensuring a stable alliance between the two powers.
   • The Ottoman Empire could have become a more European-focused power, with less emphasis on expansion in the Middle East and North Africa.
2. Religious Tolerance:
   • Prince Djem, influenced by his time in Europe, might have promoted greater religious tolerance, leading to a more pluralistic Ottoman Empire.
3. Stability and Consolidation:
   • With Prince Djem on the throne, the Ottoman Empire might have experienced a period of stability, allowing for the consolidation of its European territories.

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Europe in 1699: A Hypothetical Map:

By 1699, the Ottoman-Hungarian Empire could have controlled much of Central, Southern, and Western Europe, including key cities like Vienna, Prague, Buda, Venice, Naples, Rome, Strasbourg, Frankfurt, and Kraków. The empire would have been a dominant force in Europe, reshaping the political, cultural, and religious landscape of the continent.

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Conclusion:

If King Matthias Corvinus had allowed the Ottoman Empire to expand westward and northward, while also leveraging Prince Djem’s claim to the Ottoman throne, the result could have been a powerful Ottoman-Hungarian Empire dominating much of Europe. This scenario would have fundamentally altered the course of European history, creating a unique blend of Eastern and Western influences.”

2. I went on and asked the next question: Could have Hungary remained an independent kingdom in 1699? Would it have enjoyed a smaller or larger independence and prosperity than in real history, under the Habsburg rule?

“This is a fascinating question! If King Matthias Corvinus had allied with the Ottoman Empire and leveraged Prince Djem’s claim to the Ottoman throne, Hungary’s fate could have been dramatically different. Let’s explore whether Hungary could have remained an independent kingdom by 1699 and whether it would have enjoyed greater or lesser independence and prosperity compared to its real historical trajectory under Habsburg rule.

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Scenario: Hungary as an Independent Kingdom (1480–1699):

1. Hungary’s Role in the Ottoman-Hungarian Alliance:

• Strategic Partnership: Hungary would have been a key ally of the Ottoman Empire, providing troops, resources, and strategic expertise in exchange for protection and shared territorial gains.
• Autonomy: As a partner rather than a vassal, Hungary could have retained significant autonomy, with its own king, administration, and military.

2. Territorial Expansion:

• Hungary would have expanded its borders to include parts of Austria, Bohemia, and Croatia, becoming a dominant power in Central Europe.
• The kingdom would have controlled key cities like Vienna, Prague, and Budapest, giving it significant economic and political influence.

3. Economic Prosperity:

• Trade Routes: Hungary would have benefited from its control of the Danube River and key trade routes between East and West.
• Cultural Exchange: The alliance with the Ottomans would have facilitated cultural and technological exchange, potentially boosting Hungary’s economy and infrastructure.

4. Religious Tolerance:

• The Ottoman policy of religious tolerance might have extended to Hungary, allowing for greater coexistence of Catholics, Protestants, and Muslims. This could have reduced internal religious conflicts and fostered a more diverse and prosperous society.

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Comparison to Real History (Habsburg Rule):

1. Independence:

• Real History: After the Battle of Mohács (1526), Hungary was divided into three parts: Royal Hungary (under Habsburg rule), Ottoman Hungary, and the Principality of Transylvania. The Habsburgs gradually absorbed Hungary into their empire, reducing its autonomy.
• Hypothetical Scenario: In this alternate timeline, Hungary would have remained an independent kingdom, free from Habsburg domination. Its alliance with the Ottomans would have allowed it to maintain its sovereignty and even expand its territory.

2. Prosperity:

• Real History: Under Habsburg rule, Hungary experienced periods of economic stagnation, particularly during the Ottoman wars and the Reformation. The kingdom was often treated as a buffer zone against the Ottomans, leading to widespread destruction and depopulation.
• Hypothetical Scenario: As an independent kingdom allied with the Ottomans, Hungary would have avoided the devastation of prolonged wars with the Ottomans. Its control of key trade routes and cities like Vienna and Prague would have made it a prosperous and influential power in Europe.

3. Cultural and Religious Landscape:

• Real History: The Habsburgs enforced Catholicism and suppressed Protestantism, leading to religious conflicts and rebellions (e.g., the Kuruc uprisings).
• Hypothetical Scenario: The Ottoman policy of religious tolerance might have allowed Hungary to develop a more pluralistic society, with greater freedom for Protestants, Jews, and Muslims. This could have fostered cultural and intellectual flourishing.

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Challenges and Risks:

1. Ottoman Influence:
   • While Hungary would have retained its independence, it would have been heavily influenced by the Ottomans. This could have led to tensions between Hungarian nobles and the Ottoman administration.
2. European Resistance:
   • Other European powers, particularly the Habsburgs, France, and Poland-Lithuania, would have viewed Hungary’s alliance with the Ottomans as a threat. This could have led to coalitions against Hungary and the Ottomans, potentially destabilizing the region.
3. Internal Stability:
   • Managing a multi-ethnic and multi-religious empire would have been challenging. Hungary would have needed to balance the interests of its diverse population, including Hungarians, Slovaks, Croats, Germans, and others.

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Conclusion:

In this hypothetical scenario, Hungary could have remained an independent kingdom by 1699, enjoying greater independence and prosperity than it did under Habsburg rule. By allying with the Ottomans and leveraging Prince Djem’s claim to the Ottoman throne, Hungary would have avoided the devastation of the Ottoman wars and the oppressive policies of the Habsburgs. Instead, it would have become a dominant power in Central Europe, controlling key trade routes and fostering a diverse and prosperous society.

However, this scenario would not have been without challenges. Hungary would have had to navigate its relationship with the Ottomans, manage internal diversity, and resist external threats from other European powers. Nonetheless, the potential benefits of independence, territorial expansion, and economic prosperity make this an intriguing alternate history.”

3. My third question was this:

“In real history, Hungary suffered heavy ethnic losses as a result of the Ottoman and Habsburg wars. In 1490, about 4 million Hungarians lived in the kingdom, and this number remained the same in 1699. The difference was that the percentage of ethnic Hungarians in 1699 was much lower than in 1490. Here is my article on this: https://www.hungarianottomanwars.com/essays/ethnic-changes-in-hungary-due-to-the-ottoman-wars/

My question is: how many Hungarians would now be living in the Carpathian Basin (assuming that Trianon would not have happened in the alternate timeline due to the scenario you have drawn)?”

The Artificial Intelligence replied in a moment:

Thank you for sharing your article on the ethnic changes in Hungary due to the Ottoman wars. It provides a crucial perspective on how the wars and Habsburg rule led to significant demographic shifts in Hungary, particularly the decline in the percentage of ethnic Hungarians. In this alternate timeline, where King Matthias Corvinus allied with the Ottoman Empire and Hungary remained an independent kingdom, the demographic outcomes would likely have been very different. Let’s explore how many Hungarians might be living in the Carpathian Basin today, assuming that Trianon (the post-WWI treaty that dismembered Hungary) would not have happened in this alternate scenario.

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Key Factors Influencing Demographics in the Alternate Timeline:

1. Avoidance of Devastating Wars:
   • In real history, the Ottoman wars and the Habsburg-Ottoman conflicts caused massive depopulation and destruction in Hungary. In this alternate timeline, Hungary’s alliance with the Ottomans would have prevented these wars, allowing the population to grow steadily.
2. Economic Prosperity:
   • As an independent kingdom controlling key trade routes and cities like Vienna and Prague, Hungary would have been economically prosperous. This would have attracted settlers and encouraged population growth.
3. Religious Tolerance:
   • The Ottoman policy of religious tolerance might have extended to Hungary, reducing religious conflicts and fostering a more stable and diverse society. This could have encouraged ethnic Hungarians to remain in the region and attracted others to settle there.
4. Territorial Integrity:
   • Without the Habsburg domination and the subsequent Trianon Treaty, Hungary would have retained its historical borders, including Transylvania, Slovakia, Croatia, and other regions. This would have ensured a larger and more cohesive Hungarian population.

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Population Estimates for the Carpathian Basin in the Alternate Timeline:

1. Population Growth Without Wars:

• In real history, Hungary’s population stagnated at around 4 million between 1490 and 1699 due to wars and depopulation. In this alternate timeline, without these conflicts, the population could have grown at a moderate rate.
• Assuming an average annual population growth rate of 0.5% (a conservative estimate for pre-industrial societies without major wars), the population would have doubled roughly every 140 years.
• From 1490 to 2023 (533 years), the population could have grown by a factor of ~15 (2^(533/140)).

2. Estimated Population in 2023:

• Starting from 4 million in 1490, the population could have reached 60 million by 2023.
• However, this is a rough estimate. Adjusting for factors like urbanization, industrialization, and migration, a more realistic estimate might be 30–40 million people in the Carpathian Basin.

3. Ethnic Composition:

• In this alternate timeline, ethnic Hungarians would likely have remained the majority in the Carpathian Basin, as the wars and Habsburg policies that led to their decline in real history would not have occurred.
• Assuming ethnic Hungarians make up 70–80% of the population, there could be 21–32 million ethnic Hungarians in the region today.

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Comparison to Real History:

1. Real History (Post-Trianon):

• After Trianon (1920), Hungary lost 72% of its territory and 64% of its population. Today, there are approximately 9.5 million ethnic Hungarians in Hungary and 2–3 million in neighboring countries (e.g., Romania, Slovakia, Serbia).

2. Alternate Timeline:

• Without Trianon and the devastating wars, Hungary’s population would be significantly larger, with 21–32 million ethnic Hungarians in the Carpathian Basin. This would make Hungary one of the most populous and influential countries in Europe.

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Conclusion:

In this alternate timeline, Hungary’s alliance with the Ottoman Empire and its avoidance of the devastating wars and Habsburg domination would have led to a much larger and more prosperous population in the Carpathian Basin. By 2023, the region could have been home to 30–40 million people, with 21–32 million ethnic Hungarians. This would have made Hungary a dominant power in Central Europe, with a strong and cohesive national identity.”

My note:

I could not illustrate this whole process on a map to show you how Europe would have looked like in the alternative timeline. However, I would be glad to receive your ideas and maps you might create.

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